|July 29, 2003 edition
Republicans start to sense a 'sweep'
They talk of dominating White House and Congress as Democrats did in
By Liz Marlantes | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
NEW YORK - As Republicans fix their eyes on the 2004 election, there is a
growing sense that their party may be facing a set of opportunities not
seen in years.
Not only are they heading into a presidential cycle with a popular
incumbent and a sizable fund-raising advantage over any opponent, but the
GOP also looks to be in a strong position to expand its majorities in the
US Senate and House.
If Republicans are able to pull off across-the-board wins, the outcome
could transform the nation's politics. Coming on the heels of the 2002
elections - which gave Republicans outright control of both chambers of
Congress and the White House - a wholesale victory in 2004 would solidify
the GOP's status as the governing party in Washington, and allow it to
leave a clearly defined mark on the policy landscape.
It could even usher in an extended period of Republican dominance, similar
to the Democrats' supremacy during Franklin Roosevelt's tenure and beyond.
"There will be a lasting effect from this election if [Republicans] hold
onto power," says Kayne Robinson, former chairman of the Iowa Republican Party.
Certainly, Republicans are taking no chances. They are preparing for a
tight presidential contest, raising record sums of money, and devoting more
attention than ever to grass-roots and turnout operations.
At the summer meeting this past weekend of the Republican National
Committee (RNC), party officials were careful to strike a cautiously
optimistic note. While affirming that the 2004 election may afford the
party its "greatest opportunity in generations," Ken Mehlman, President
Bush's campaign manager, also stressed that it would be "a challenge."
Indeed, recent public opinion polling does have Mr. Bush looking more
vulnerable, with his approval ratings below 60 percent. With American
casualties mounting in Iraq, Democrats are accusing Bush of misrepresenting
intelligence in the run-up to war and bungling the postwar phase.
They are also attacking his management of the economy, highlighting job
losses and the return of budget deficits. "I wouldn't want to be running on
his economic record," Sen. Jon Corzine (D) of New Jersey said at a recent
And while Bush's popularity among the GOP base has evoked some comparisons
to Ronald Reagan, few envision 2004 turning into a landslide along the
lines of 1984. Despite all the attention being paid to New York, for
example - the city is the site for next year's Republican convention -
Thomas Keller, a GOP leader from Westchester County, doubted the president
can win his state. "I have to be honest," he said. "It's a long shot.
'He has a touch'
Still, on other key indicators, Bush looks formidable: A majority of
Americans regard him as a strong leader, and, unusual for a Republican
president, a majority also believe he cares about people like them.
"He has a touch and a connection with people that not everybody has," said
Cindy Phillips, a committeewoman from Mississippi attending the RNC meeting.
The party is banking on what Mr. Mehlman called the "transformative power
of this president" to forge a broader coalition of support. Already, in
2002, the GOP made inroads into traditionally Democratic groups, winning
larger percentages of the Hispanic vote, sharply reducing the gender gap
with women, and actually winning seniors outright.
Bush also demonstrated his willingness to campaign tirelessly on behalf of
Republican candidates, something likely to continue in 2004. Many believe
Bush's popularity will help propel Republicans nationwide into office with him.
"President Bush at the top of any ticket helps any candidate," asserted Kay
Kellogg Katz, a GOP state representative from Louisiana, who attended the
RNC meeting in a blue, denim shirt studded with rhinestone elephants.
But even if Bush proves not to have political coattails, the 2004
congressional map may well favor the GOP. In the Senate, Demo-crats will be
defending 19 seats to Republicans' 15, with 22 of the total 34 seats up in
states Bush won in 2000.
In the House, the last round of redistricting largely shored up incumbents,
giving Democrats few opportunities to best Republicans. Moreover, a few
GOP-held state legislatures, such as Texas, are attempting to redraw
district lines again, which could wind up increasing their majorities.
If Bush wins reelection and the GOP increases its majorities in Congress,
the party would have four more years to enact its agenda, explained Mr.
Robinson of Iowa, and to see its policies play out. If Americans aren't
happy with the end results, there could be a backlash, he admitted. But if
they are, he said Republicans will "reap the rewards" in subsequent campaigns.
"Our time is just beginning," said Ms. Phillips of Mississippi.
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