It is a myth that he owes his support to disaffected blue-collar workers
MOST analysis of Donald Trumpís support has focused on his appeal to poorer working-class whites, who are assumed to have lost the most from globalisation. His victory in New York was a reminder that his appeal is wider than that. He won the Empire State by such a big margin that he could not help picking up the votes of plenty of richer Republican primary voters. But exit polling from those other state primaries where it is available show that better-paid and better-educated voters have always formed as big a part of Mr Trumpís base as those at the lower end of the scale for income and education.
On average, people earning under $50,000 have made up 29% of the Republican electorate in primary states with exit polls, and 32% of Mr Trumpís voting base. However, those earning over $100,000 have accounted for 37% of the electorate and 34% of his base. In Illinois, for example, he took 46% of those earning under $50,000, but they made up only a quarter of the electorate: he won 39% of those earning over $100,000, who were two-fifths of that primaryís voters. Voters with a high-school education or less have made up 16% of the Republican electorate and a fifth of Mr Trumpís base. College graduates and postgraduates account for 43% of his support.
Mr Trump does not have a majority among wealthy Republicans. But the idea that it is mostly poorer, less-educated voters who are attracted to Mr Trump is a myth. Only 13% of the votes in New Yorkís Republican primary came from New York City; the vast majority were cast upstate. Statewide data show that he won 52% of those earning under $50,000 and 64% of those earning over $100,000. Mr Trump may seem to be a champion of disaffected blue-collar whites. But there are not enough of them among Republican primary voters to account for his success.