Democrats didn't lose the battle of 2010. They won it.
By William Saletan
DEMOCRATS HAVE LOST the House, and health care is getting the blame.
Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, a retiring Democrat, says his party
"overreached by focusing on health care rather than job creation" and
by spending $1 trillion on "a major entitlement expansion." Sen. John
McCain's economic adviser agrees. Pundits say the health care bill
killed President Obama's approval ratings, cost congressional
Democrats their jobs, and snuffed out the legacy of House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi. "Virtually every House Democrat from a swing district
who took a gamble by voting for the health law made a bad political
bet," says the New York Times. The Los Angeles Times laments that "the
measure of a leader in Washington isn't how much gets done, it's who
holds power in the end. On that scale, Pelosi failed."
I'm not buying the autopsy or the obituary. In the national exit poll,
voters were split on health care. Unemployment is at nearly 10
percent. Democrats lost a lot of seats that were never really theirs,
and those who voted against the bill lost at a higher rate than did
those who voted for it. But if health care did cost the party its
majority, so what? The bill was more important than the election.
I realize that sounds crazy. We've become so obsessed with who wins or
loses in politics that we've forgotten what the winning and losing are
about. Partisans fixate on punishing their enemies in the next
campaign. Reporters, in the name of objectivity, refuse to judge
anything but the Election Day score card. Politicians rationalize
their self-preservation by imagining themselves as dynasty builders.
They think this is the big picture.
They're wrong. The big picture isn't about winning or keeping power.
It's about using it. I've made this argument before, but David Frum,
the former speechwriter to President Bush, has made it better. In
March, when Democrats secured enough votes to pass the bill, he
castigated fellow conservatives who looked forward to punishing Pelosi
and President Obama "with a big win in the November 2010 elections."
Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever. A
win in November is very poor compensation for this debacle now. … No
illusions please: This bill will not be repealed. Even if Republicans
scored a 1994 style landslide in November, how many votes could we
muster to re-open the "doughnut hole" and charge seniors more for
prescription drugs? How many votes to re-allow insurers to rescind
policies when they discover a pre-existing condition? How many votes
to banish 25 year olds from their parents' insurance coverage?
Exactly. A party that loses a House seat can win it back two years
later, as Republicans just proved. But a party that loses a
legislative fight against a middle-class health care entitlement never
restores the old order. Pretty soon, Republicans will be claiming the
program as their own. Indeed, one of their favorite arguments against
this year's health care bill was that it would cut funding for
Medicare. Now they're pledging to rescind those cuts. In 30 years,
they'll be accusing Democrats of defunding Obamacare.
Most bills aren't more important than elections. This one was. Take it
from Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader. Yesterday, in his
election victory speech at the Heritage Foundation, he declared,
"Health care was the worst piece of legislation that's passed during
my time in the Senate." McConnell has been in the Senate for 26 years.
He understands the bill's significance: It's a huge structural change
in the relationship between the public, the economy, and the
Politicians have tried and failed for decades to enact universal
health care. This time, they succeeded. In 2008, Democrats won the
presidency and both houses of Congress, and by the thinnest of
margins, they rammed a bill through. They weren't going to get another
opportunity for a very long time. It cost them their majority, and it
was worth it.And that's not counting financial regulation, economic
stimulus, college lending reform, and all the other bills that became
law under Pelosi. So spare me the tears and gloating about her
so-called failure. If John Boehner is speaker of the House for the
next 20 years, he'll be lucky to match her achievements.
Will Republicans revisit health care? Sure. Will they enact some
changes to the program? Yes, and Democrats will help them. Every
program needs revisions. Republicans will get other things, too:
business tax breaks, education reform, more nuclear power, and a
crackdown on earmarks. These are issues on which both parties can
agree. Which is why, if you're a Democrat, you deal with them after
you've lost your majority—not before.
It's funny, in a twisted way, to read all the post-election complaints
that Democrats lost because they thought only of themselves. Even the
chief operating officer of the party's leading think tank, the Center
for American Progress, says Obama failed to convince Americans "that
he knows their jobs are as important as his." That's too bad, because
Obama, Pelosi, and their congressional allies proved just the
opposite. They risked their jobs—and in many cases lost them—to pass
the health care bill. The elections were a painful defeat, and you can
argue that the bill was misguided. But Democrats didn't lose the most
important battle of 2010. They won it.