Re: Robert Prechter
Source Don Parker
Date 02/11/08/03:56

Interesting, pessimistic, sobering.  I feel more like playing defensively.   I
do think the economy and the market are much affected by collective feelings of
pessimism and optimism, some of which is self fulfilling.  The self fulfilling
part is probably one reason why markets and economies often over correct.
Anyway I think the best indicator may be how people are feeling and to the
extent that can be predicted it is a good indicator.

Part of getting a feel for what will happen is looking at how you feel
yourself.  Then how are others feeling.  And then the question is how will
people be feeling in say a year.  War in Iraq and middle east could intensify.
Although the Iraq part could be fairly quick and give us a temporary feeling of
power.  Another bad terrorist attack in the U.S. would make us less optomistic
and somewhat more fearful but it would also be accompanied with a lot of
determination that would have people grimly refuse to let terrorisists win.

Some more unemployment could come but people still want a lot of goods and
services and will keep buying, even if at a somewhat lower level.  People do not
like the stock or corp bond markets much, because they have been burned and they
don't trust business leaders.  That is likely to continue for a while.  I think
people want security and still want to invest in things they control like their
own businesses and real estate.  Owning something makes me feel more secure so
that is probably true for others too.

In the face of fear and skepticism and consequent lack of investment in public
companies, and with R takeover we'll probably get a capital gains reduction
which might actually cause both buying and selling of real estate.  Selling to
take advantage of the new law.  That could cause some short term reduction in
prices of rental property, but others who want to own something and who want a
better or safer return than with stocks or bonds or money market funds, will
step in if they are not feeling too pessimistic.

On the other hand...

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